#collapse of Assad regime

[thoughtlessarse]

The EU's executive branch, the European Commission, said that currently 'the conditions are not met for safe, voluntary, dignified returns to Syria.' Austria's government has said it is offering Syrian refugees in the country a 'return bonus' of €1,000 euros to go back to Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The move comes as several countries across Europe have already begun deliberating what to do with their Syrian refugee populations. "Austria will support Syrians who wish to return to their home country with a return bonus of 1,000 euros. The country now needs its citizens in order to be rebuilt," Conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer said in a statement posted in English and German on X. Nehammer said on the day al-Assad was ousted that the security situation in Syria would be reassessed to determine whether deportations could go ahead. Deporting people against their will is not possible until the situation in Syria has been deemed safe, so the government, led by the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) has said it will focus on voluntary deportations. Austria has also stopped processing asylum applications filed by Syrians, in line with several other European countries, including Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Czech Republic. But all of those countries agree it is too early to consider returning refugees to Syria. The EU's executive branch, the European Commission, said that currently "the conditions are not met for safe, voluntary, dignified returns to Syria."

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[truthwars]

Rebels Overthrow Assad in Syrian Civil War: A Turning Point

The Syrian civil war reached a critical milestone as rebels overthrew Assad's government. Key cities like Damascus, Hama, and Homs fell with little resistance, signaling a collapse in Assad’s military morale. #Syria #Assad #Rebels

The Syrian civil war reached a pivotal moment as rebels overthrow Assad and his government. They quickly captured key cities like Hama, Homs, and Damascus. The minimal resistance from Assad’s forces points to a major morale collapse within his troops. On X, one user posted, “Assad and his family have fled the country,” signaling the end of a regime that once held Syria under strict control. Why…

[fullhalalalchemist]

THE ASSAD REGIME HAS COLLAPSED

LONG LIVE SYRIA

SYRIA IS FREE!!!! SYRIA IS FREE!!!!!

[transit-fag]

So um, the Assad regime collapsed

[abla-soso]

Assad's evil regime has finally collapsed completely!

[dostoyevsky-official]

watching this brutal, grinding 14 year war collapse in week has been surreal. the end of the ba'athist regime, the surrender of damascus, and assad's flight are not the end of the war, however: HTS wasn't the group to take the capital, and now it has to face a process of contestation and political transition with several different armed factions, none of whom want a salafist, islamic state. in the worst scenario, conflict between the various groups might break out in the coming weeks or months

[crimethinc]

News from the Front: The Reflections of a Russian Anarchist in Rojava

A Russian anarchist volunteer speaks on the collapse of the Assad regime, the future of Russia, and the looming threat of a Turkish-backed invasion of northeastern Syria.

http://crimethinc.com/Rojava2024

"I watched with special feeling as the Russian columns passed by me at one of the positions. I peered into the faces of the soldiers, trying to understand whether they realized that all these years, they had been terrorizing the population with bombings, they had surrendered Afrin to the Turkish army, they had kept Assad’s regime alive—and now all this is over. Russian military aid to the Syrian dictatorship has ended. I do not think that those soldiers realized that they were looking into the eyes of a man from the same country as themselves, but who chose the other side of the barricades."

[mariacallous]

The spectacularly rapid fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and his regime is the Middle East’s 1989. Like the fall of the Berlin Wall, this weekend’s end of 54 years of Assad family rule signals an earthquake in the regional order—with tremors that will be felt for decades to come. Just as 1989 was marked by a series of falling dominoes in Poland, Hungary, East Germany, and elsewhere, the collapse of the Syrian regime is part of a chain of events, including Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah, Iran’s loss of its most potent proxy forces, and the weakening of Russia due to the war it started in Ukraine.

And just as 1989 marked the end of communism in Europe, Assad’s flight to Moscow signals the demise of the ideology of anti-Western, anti-Israel resistance in the Middle East. For more than half a century, the Assad family was the backbone for a political order in the Middle East in which a bloc of states styled themselves as the resistance to what they labeled Western imperialism and Zionism. The appropriation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict proved to be a powerful tool to mobilize the masses across the region who wanted justice for Palestinians—sentiments that the Syrian regime and its allies instrumentalized to distract from their domestic failures, oppress their own people, and extend their regimes’ regional influence. In reality, these regimes cared little about the Palestinians.

Within this bloc, Syria and Iran believed they had entered a mutually beneficial and durable alliance—and each thought it had the upper hand. Syria was crucial for Iran because it was the heart of the land bridge between Iran and its most valuable proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Syria saw alignment with Iran as increasing its own stature against Israel and bolstering its influence over Lebanon.

For Iran, the ideology of resistance was an indispensable tool to rally support from Arabs and Sunnis as Tehran vied for dominance in the Middle East. As the leaders of a self-styled Axis of Resistance, the clerics in Tehran were able to supplant the old ideology of pan-Arab nationalism, as espoused by the Syrian Baath Party and others, and ultimately dominate several Arab countries through well-armed proxies. The Assad regime ignored this challenge even as Iran manipulated the Baath Party to serve Tehran’s own objective of achieving regional dominance. For example, Iran presented Hezbollah to Syria as an ally when Hezbollah’s primary purpose was to support exporting the Islamic revolution.

The Syrian uprising of 2011 and the war that followed shifted the balance of power toward Iran, which intervened to prop up the Assad regime. Most consequentially, Tehran summoned Hezbollah to support the Assad regime against the Syrian rebels.

In the course of the Syrian war, the country moved from being a partner to a client of Iran. A much-diminished Assad regime was now dependent for its survival on Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah and Tehran-controlled militias from various countries. In other Middle Eastern states, including Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, Iran’s proxies consolidated their status as dominant political and military actors. Iran increased its investment in them as its outer lines of defense and tools of geopolitical influence.

Iran’s rise and dominance as a regional power came to define an entire era of Middle Eastern politics. Across the region, most countries either were under direct Iranian influence via the country’s proxies or were forced to configure their foreign policies around the threats posed by Iran. The Gulf Arab states, for example, ended up pursuing de-escalation with Iran to stave off the instability caused by its activities.

The United States, other Western countries, and Israel did not like this Iran-dominated order, but they tolerated it. They saw it as lower risk compared with the unknown forces that sudden political change in Iran or Syria could unleash. This Cold War-like arrangement with a confrontational status quo made Damascus and Tehran feel confident in their power vis-à-vis the West and its allies.

U.S. disengagement from the Middle East under the Obama administration paved the way for Russia to insert itself into the regional order. When Iran and its proxies showed themselves unable to prop up the Assad regime on their own, Moscow saw the Syrian war as a low-cost opportunity to reclaim its status as a global power and arbiter of the region. Russia’s substantial naval and air bases in Syria also served as critical logistical centers for Moscow’s expanding military operations in Africa.

For almost a decade, Russia thus became a major actor in the Middle Eastern cold war. Russia, Iran, and the rest of the Axis of Resistance appeared to form one bloc, while Western allies such as Israel and the Gulf Arab countries formed another. But Russian support for Assad was little more than a transactional partnership, and Russian-Iranian relations were never frictionless. From the beginning of Russia’s military intervention in Syria, it sought to undermine Iran’s influence in the country so that Russia remained the dominant actor.

The Iranian regime, in turn, was concerned about the challenge that Russia presented to its influence in Syria. Yet Tehran had no choice but to remain in Moscow’s orbit, regarding its influence over Syria as a small price to pay in return for gaining a powerful backer for its Axis of Resistance.

Tehran presented Hezbollah and the Assad regime to the Iranian people as a worthy investment: the front line of resistance to Israel and the crown jewels of Iran’s regional clout. Tehran needed to reassure Iranians that the economic sacrifices and political isolation that its support for Hezbollah and Assad generated were not in vain. Otherwise, Tehran argued, Iran would be under threat of erasure by Israel and the United States.

The collapse of the Assad regime has jolted this dynamic to an abrupt stop. Russia’s abandonment of Assad—and by extension, Iran’s project in Syria—creates additional rifts in Iran’s already shrinking network of proxies. The Iranian leadership will struggle to justify to its people decades of investment in Syria that have gone down the drain in a matter of days.

Standing alone without Syria and Russia in the face of a still-strong Western-backed bloc, the regime in Tehran will be revealed to its people as having imposed a futile sacrifice that not even its nuclear program can redeem. This poses a serious risk to the survival of the Islamic Republic—potentially the biggest fallout of last week’s events.

The repercussions of Assad’s collapse will also ripple across Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen as Iran’s proxies find themselves without an important lifeline. In Lebanon, in particular, the political dynamics set off by Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah are likely to accelerate with the loss of the all-important land bridge for weapons supplies from Iran. The sudden vulnerability of an already weakened Iran also means that Tehran’s remaining proxies may doubt the reliability of their patron.

The domino effect of the collapse of the Assad regime will inevitably mean the end of the Iran-dominated regional order. Replacing it will be a regional order dominated by Israel and its partners. Israel has shifted its perspective from an uneasy tolerance of Iran’s influence in the Middle East to actively seeking an end to this status quo and has succeeded in practically neutralizing the biggest threat to its security, Iran. Israel will move from being a state surrounded by adversaries and clawing at regional legitimacy to becoming the Middle East’s agenda-setter. Enjoying good relations with both the United States and Russia also makes Israel a key player in ending the cold war in the Middle East.

For the Gulf Arab countries, Iran’s degradation as a destabilizing actor also bolsters the implementation of their economic visions. The defeat of Iran’s revolutionary project will pave the way for widening the scope of normalization between Arab countries and Israel on the basis of shared business, political, and security interests. This recalibration will likely push Turkey to act more pragmatically in the way it engages with the region.

The anti-Western ideology nurtured by the Syrian Baath Party for 54 years and successfully appropriated by Iran blossomed for decades but is rapidly withering. Just as the Cold War ended with the defeat of communism, decades of confrontation in the Middle East will end with the defeat of the resistance ideology.

[girlactionfigure]

For decades, we’ve been fed the lie that Israel is the root of all conflict in the Middle East. That if Israel disappeared, the region would suddenly blossom into peace and prosperity.

Let’s test that theory.

Imagine the Israelis, exhausted from wars, terrorism, and endless global condemnation, decide the land isn’t worth the blood.

They pack up and leave for Europe, Canada, the U.S., anywhere but here.

Palestinian flags rise over every inch of land from the river to the sea.

Hamas, the PA, and their cheerleaders worldwide celebrate the ultimate victory.

Then what?

The illusion of unity shatters within hours. Hamas and the Palestinian Authority turn on each other. The PA, riddled with corruption and incapable of governing, is no match for Hamas, which seizes the West Bank as easily as it did Gaza in 2007.

The streets fill with executions, Palestinians killing Palestinians.

Palestinian factions within Jordan, emboldened by the so-called liberation of their homeland, demand full political rights, power-sharing, and ultimately, the transformation of Jordan into a Palestinian state.

The Jordanian government and tribes, desperate to maintain control, issues a decree: Palestinians must return to their "liberated" homeland.

But with Gaza and the West Bank descending into chaos as Hamas and the PA turn on each other, there is nowhere to go. Also, they refuse to give their rights in Jordan.

The demand ignites mass unrest. Palestinians refuse to leave, protests turn violent, and the simmering tensions that have existed for decades explode into full-scale civil war.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah's true motives are laid bare. For decades, it claimed its weapons were for "resistance" against Israel, but in reality, Hezbollah has always armed itself out of fear, fear of Sunni dominance.

Now, with Israel out of the picture, that fear becomes reality. The war-hardened Sunni militias of Tripoli, no longer restrained by the façade of "unity against Zionism," rise up with one goal: to break Hezbollah’s stranglehold over Lebanon.

They are emboldened, fueled by regional Sunni powers who see this as the perfect moment to settle scores.

The Christians, long persecuted and sidelined, scramble to arm themselves, knowing that the collapse of Hezbollah's iron grip could mean renewed massacres and the resurgence of old hostilities.

The Alawite remnants of Assad’s shattered regime, seeing no future in Syria, flee to Lebanon, dragging their war with them.

Massacres, chaos, and anarchy consume Lebanon within months.

The jihadist regime in Syria, under the pretext of hunting down the remnants of Assad’s Alawite loyalists and "protecting" their Sunni brothers in Lebanon, will launch a full-scale invasion.

Their first objective: to crush Hezbollah and dismantle its hold on power.

But once Hezbollah is defeated, their mission won’t stop there. With newfound dominance, they will turn against Lebanon’s Christians, demanding greater Sunni control and reshaping the country’s fragile balance through force.

Iran will move swiftly to defend the Shia in Lebanon, igniting a full-scale war against Syria.

Saudi Arabia will intervene to back the Sunni forces, dragging the entire region into chaos.

Meanwhile, Turkey will seize the moment to launch a brutal offensive against the Kurds, but its aggression will spiral into direct conflict with Iran.

Civil war in Iraq.

Egypt, aligning with Saudi Arabia, will enter the fray, while Algeria, driven by old rivalries, will strike at Egypt.

The Houthis in Yemen, acting as Iran’s proxy, will unleash attacks on Egypt, while the UAE will move against the Houthis.

In retaliation, Iran will target the UAE.

The idea that Israel is the root of Middle Eastern conflict is a lie.

War has been the default setting of the Islamic world for 1,400 years.

The moment Muhammad died, his followers turned on each other, launching centuries of bloodshed that never stopped.

Islamic conquests have killed between 300-400 million people, long before Israel even existed.

The idea that Israel is the reason for conflict is a lie, perpetuated to justify jihad.

Without Israel, the Islamic world wouldn’t turn into a utopia, it would turn into an even darker nightmare.

The ultimate truth is this: Thank God for Israel, otherwise, this post would be real news.

[deadpresidents]

I thought this was a blog about us presidents, no one comes here to read your thoughts on the mess in syria.

Well, first and foremost, this isn't a request line. I started this blog to write about whatever I want to write about and I've been doing that for 15+ years. It's not changing anytime soon. I don't care what you came here to read. It's not for you. If anybody finds anything interesting, it's an added bonus.

The collapse of a regime that has existed longer than I've been alive and has had an iron grip on one of the oldest continuous civilizations in the world is historic. And it's interesting to me, and I'll write about whatever interests me whenever I am interested by it. These moments should be fascinating to anybody who has an interest in history. You never know where the story is going to go from here, and that alone is interesting, as well. Just because it isn't "your" history doesn't mean it isn't historic.

When Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father in 2000, there was actually a significant amount of optimism around him. He was a London-educated ophthalmologist who was never intended to be Syria's leader but was thrust into the role after the death of his brother in a car accident. It was thought that he might be a reformer who would lead differently than the tyrannical rule of his father. There was hope that some real changes might take place in parts of the Arab world in 1999 and 2000 when King Hussein of Jordan, King Hassan II of Morocco, and Hafez al-Assad of Syria -- longtime rulers in their respective countries -- all died and were replaced by sons in their mid-30s (King Abdullah II in Jordan, King Mohammed VI in Morocco, and Bashar in Syria). Jordan and Morocco weren't in the same situation as Syria, especially considering the decades of close connections King Hussein and King Hassan II had with the United States, but there was still genuine hope about Bashar al-Assad in 2000.

Twenty-four years later, we know the path of history that Assad took, but these moments are hugely important -- not just for Syrians or Arabs or the Middle East in general, but for the entire world. What happens in Syria matters here. Don't forget that there are American soldiers on the ground in Syria. I'm from Sacramento and live in Los Angeles -- those two cities are almost twice as far apart as Damascus is from Jerusalem. Damascus is closer to Beirut than Sacramento is to San Francisco. Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Israel -- these countries are all intricately connected with Syria in various ways and have been for decades. If you aren't interested in what's going on in Syria today, that's your prerogative. If you don't think what's going on in Syria today makes a difference here, you are disturbingly ignorant.

[tanadrin]

I have a lot of questions about what the result of Assad’s regime collapsing will be but the only possible answer to any of them i think is “wait and see.” It is nice to see a real piece of shit get deposed, though.

[bitesize-astrology]

Chaos

Sunday - December 8, 2024

Since December 1st: France and Germany have seen their governments collapse. South Korea implemented martial law. Georgia (the country) has seen protests and rebellion. Romania annulled the results of their 2024 presidential election. The Assad regime in Syria has collapsed.

There is definitely chaos in the world.

Trust that things are "falling" into place. And if there is something that is "falling" in your world right now, it's probably because its time is over and done.

Stay the course ... and make sure God Universe is pointing the way. Because this isn't over yet. By a long shot.

[darkmaga-returns]

Why, exactly, did Washington back Sunni rebels taking down Assad, and if Washington wants a Turkish-backed Sunni Muslim caliphate in Syria, should we as Christians cheer Washington getting its way?

Leo Hohmann

Dec 09, 2024

All of those in the West celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Syria had better be careful what they wish for.

I’ve heard some awful dumb statements coming from conservative circles in recent days about the “stunning” nine-day collapse of Syria.

One prominent regular guest commentator on Fox News has come out and said both sides in the Syrian Civil War are made up of really bad buys, but that he was hoping the coalition of “rebels” which include the former El Nusra, al-Qaida and other Sunni Muslim terrorists would win. Why? Because they’re against Russia and Iran, whom he fears more.

But even that nonsense pales in comparison to some of the other chatter out there in conservative and even Christian circles, where I’m hearing them say there is “hope” now for a democratically elected constitutional republic to emerge in Syria. Where is there another example of such a government, of, by and for the people anywhere in the Middle East right now? I would actually go further and say I don’t see a government anywhere on Earth right now that reflects those vaunted principles.

Let's face it: The U.S. didn't support the rebels who overran Syria because they thought Assad was too brutal of a dictator. They supported them because it was yet another way to deal a black eye to Russia.

Instead of Russia and Iran running the show in Syria, now we face the very real possibility that Russia and Iran will be replaced with Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.

[sobeksewerrat]

Was not expecting Sherlock and Co to talk about the collapse of Bashar Al Assad's regime but okay

[abla-soso]

Do you realize how crazy it is that Assad's regime is completely collapsing before our eyes in less than a week after Iran and Russia gave up on it?!

This proves to the world what Syrians already knew, that the revolution was winning and on its way to total victory back in 2012 until Iran and Russia invaded and occupied most of Syria for over 13 years.

Fuck everyone who conspired to suffocate the revolution and silenced the will of the Syrian people. Your efforts were in vain! Die mad about it!

[dostoyevsky-official]

Why Syria Matters to the Kremlin

Syria is important to Moscow because intervening there in 2015 allowed Putin to reverse the narrative of Russian decline that had taken hold since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia would no longer be what then-President Barack Obama dismissed as a declining “regional power”—it was to be a decisive great-power patron of the Assad regime, and as such, it would rewrite the playbook of outside intervention in the Middle East. American-led interventions, such as the invasion of Iraq and the NATO campaign in Libya, shattered states and bred chaos. Russia would have the opposite effect, preserving Syrian sovereignty and regional order. To understand Russia’s military position in Syria, consider that when Moscow first intervened there, in September 2015, it did so with a surprisingly light footprint and a long-term plan to modernize and strengthen the Syrian military. Moscow deployed just 2,500 to 4,500 personnel to Syria at any given time, focusing on air power, air defenses, and special forces, while relying on Iran and its proxies to supply ground forces. Ultimately, the Kremlin sought to build the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) into a professional fighting force capable of independently securing Assad’s rule, and so it poured resources into modernizing the SAA’s command structures, improving battlefield coordination, and equipping units with advanced Russian weaponry. [...] The collapse of regime defenses revealed that Russia’s long-term strategy to professionalize Assad’s military had failed. These setbacks will not drive Russia out of Syria, however. The Kremlin has too much at stake. It has already leveraged its Syrian intervention to rebuild its Middle Eastern influence, positioning itself as an essential mediator among Iran, Turkey, the Gulf states, the United States, and Israel. Moscow has also secured lucrative economic contracts for the reconstruction of Syria. Given the stakes, Moscow will be compelled to adapt rather than withdraw. It will likely seek to strengthen military cooperation with Iran, including by finding a role for Iraqi militias and recruits in Syria. As consuming as the war in Ukraine has been for Russia, the Kremlin does not see it as superseding its Middle East ambitions. That’s because Syria is not just a military outpost. It is a cornerstone of Russia’s claim to great-power status, a theater where it can demonstrate its diplomatic reach and its counternarrative to Western interventionism. This explains why Russia continues to invest in Syria even as it fights a costly war in Ukraine. Moscow may adjust its tactics, but abandoning Syria would mean surrendering something far more precious than territory: Russia’s hard-won position as an indispensable power broker in the Middle East.

3 December 2024